AUKUS可望成印太版北约核心

2021.09.19 15:30 cloctor AUKUS可望成印太版北约核心

AUKUS可望成印太版北约核心
Le président français, Emmanuel Macron, s'entretient avec le président américain, Joe Biden, avant une réunion de l'Otan au siège de l'organisation, à Bruxelles (Belgique), le 14 juin 2021. © BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI / AFP
英国、美国、澳大利亚近日宣布成立新三方安全联盟AUKUS,外界多认为是因应日益强势的中国。有分析指出,若北京持续军事扩张,未来印太区域可能出现以AUKUS为核心的类北大西洋公约组织(NATO)大型安全联盟。
外界最关注的AUKUS合作项目包括英、美将协助澳洲打造至少8艘核动力潜舰。英、美、澳国防工业可望进行深度整合,这显示它们彼此之间具高度战略互信。相较之下,澳洲原本的合作对象法国过去约6个月来竟一路被蒙在鼓里。

根据近日陆续浮上台面的“新闻幕后”,AUKUS的成形过程宛如英国谍报小说大师约翰.勒卡雷(John Le Carré)笔下故事。
英国《泰晤士报》18日引述国防和国安圈消息人士报导,澳洲至少早在今年3月就秘密部署要转而与英、美合作。当英国首席海务大臣、海军参谋长拉达金(Tony Radakin)应邀与澳洲海军司令努南(Michael Noonan)会晤时,他没料到对方会探问,英、美是否能协助澳洲打造核动力潜舰。
澳洲方面认为,虽然5年前已同意向法国采购柴油电力潜舰,但它们的速度、匿踪性、续航力、机动性及监侦能力恐不足以应对区域内主要来自中国的新挑战。
在这个领域,英、美具备60年经验,且与澳洲同属情报分享“五眼联盟”,澳洲更是大英国协成员,因此无论是从技术、沟通效率或互信程度等主客观角度,英美都是比法国更好的选择。
拉达金返回英国后,即刻向时任国防部常务次长勒夫格洛弗(Stephen Lovegrove)报告此事。首相办公室随即展开代号“无钩”的秘密行动(Operation Hookless),全英国只有10个人知道相关细节,包括首相、外交和国防大臣,以及很快就被任命为国安顾问、因此更能“放手办事”的勒夫格洛弗。
此外,英国政府3月发布国防与外交政策总检视报告,当中倡议英国“向印太地区倾斜”;这份报告的幕后灵魂人物、首相约翰逊(Boris Johnson)的外交政策顾问比尤(John Bew)也是“10人小组”成员。
根据报导,澳洲先与英国接触后,英国才向美国洽谈。 由于事涉核子技术和原料分享等敏感议题,美方花了不少时间层层协调不同单位,但若无法尽早定案,澳洲向法国支付的赔偿金额将直线上升。
担任主席国的英国6月召开七大工业国组织(G7)峰会。正当与会的法国代表将焦点摆在英国脱欧后与欧盟的贸易争议,约翰逊等人正默默推进“无钩行动”,且积极布局要将英、美、澳三方合作范围扩大至潜舰专案以外。AUKUS相关细节几乎就是在G7期间由英、美、澳三国领导人敲定。
包括勒夫格洛弗等英国高阶官员称AUKUS是近50年来国际间最重大的军力合作,且有助各国相关产业和技术加速发展。
关注英国海军的独立新闻网站“海军瞭望”(Navy Lookout)分析,相较于与法国的合作案或直接向英美购买既有潜舰产品,对澳洲来说,透过AUKUS打造核动力潜舰其实成本和难度更高,特别是1998年即立法禁用核能的澳洲缺乏民用核子工业基础及人才。不过,这却也是澳洲提升相关技术实力、打造符合自身需求的尖端产品的好机会。
另一方面,英国海军也正着手打造新一代核动力猎杀潜舰(hunter-killer submarine),预计在2050年以前投入部署,替代原来的7艘、目前仍持续交付的“机敏级”(Astute class)核潜舰。
部分评论指出,澳洲透过AUKUS机制打造的核动力潜舰在设计上很有可能比照美国的“维吉尼亚级”(Virginia class),或者英国的“机敏级”潜舰。不过,“海军瞭望”分析,有鉴于英国正在发展新一代猎杀潜舰,透过英、澳合作设计,未来澳洲史上首批核动力潜舰的性能可望超越英国“机敏级”,确保AUKUS持续因应印太区域安全挑战的实力。

RFI 18/09/2021
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